A Dynamical Approach to Seasonal Prediction of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Experimental Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity at IRI
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) has been issuing experimental seasonal tropical cyclone activity forecasts for several ocean basins since early 2003. In this paper the method used to obtain these forecasts is described and the forecast performance is evaluated. The forecasts are based on tropical cyclone–like features detected and tracked in a low-resolution c...
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Predictions of the remainder of the season’s Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity from 1 August have been issued by Gray and his colleagues at the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University since 1984. The original 1 August prediction scheme utilized several predictors, including measures of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), West African rainfall, El Niño–So...
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Statistical forecasts of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane activity have been issued since 1984 by the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University (CSU) headed by William Gray. Since these initial forecasts were developed, considerable improvements in data and statistical techniques have led to improved amounts of skill in both hindcasting and forecasting of seasonal Atlantic basi...
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A simplified dynamical system for tropical cyclone intensity prediction based on a logistic growth equation (LGE) is developed. The time tendency of the maximum sustained surface winds is proportional to the sum of two terms: a growth term and a term that limits the maximum wind to an upper bound. The maximum wind evolution over land is determined by an empirical inland wind decay formula. The ...
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In this study, an estimate of the expected number of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) that were missed by the observing system in the presatellite era (between 1878 and 1965) is developed. The significance of trends in both number and duration since 1878 is assessed and these results are related to estimated changes in sea surface temperature (SST) over the “main development region” (“MDR”). Th...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Weather and Forecasting
سال: 2001
ISSN: 0882-8156,1520-0434
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0434(2002)016<0725:adatsp>2.0.co;2